The first item up on the docket for our Flip or Hold is Joe Burrow’s Flagship Rookie Card from 2020 Panini Prizm. The card was almost shot down before it was even released. Burrow, one of the hottest rookies of the 2020 Class had his season cut short on Nov 22nd when he tore his ACL/MCL against the Washington Football Team. Less than two weeks later, Prizm Football was released. The injury definitely put a damper on the Burrow RC market but news of his recent success in his recovery has bolstered the market on this card.
Anytime we are contemplating a Flip or Hold scenario it is important to take a step back and look at the best and worst case scenarios for not only the player, but their cards as well. A couple good comparisons for Burrow, in my mind, are Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen. Both players were drafted high to under performing teams in markets that have not had much recent success. Both Buffalo and Cleveland had not won a playoff game since 1995 until their recent success in the 2020 NFL Playoffs. When comparing relative card values I like to use the PSA 10 market because it takes out the variable of condition of the card. Over the past 90 days Josh Allen’s 2018 Prizm Base PSA 10 RC has seen auction prices near $1,000, while Baker Mayfield’s 2018 Prizm Base PSA 10 RC has seen prices exceed $300. This represents two very important factors when evaluating the potential of a players card. One is the teams ability to succeed, while the other is the players ability to succeed. Josh Allen led his franchise to postseason success while riding an MVP caliber season, while Mayfield had an up and down season but still led the Browns out of their long history of futility. Either of these scenarios are entirely possible on the upside for Joe Burrow in 2021. For comparison 2020 Joe Burrow Prizm Base PSA 10 RC’s have seen prices exceed $600.
This scenario makes Burrow the perfect candidate for our first iteration of Flip or Hold. One one hand the market for Burrow has the ability to double in a short amount of time, while it is also very feasible that the market loses steam and his prices are cut in half based on his 2021 season.