Now that we have built up a little capital from our Matthew Stafford Refractor rookie card flip. We are now on the hunt for the greatest maximization of profit, finding an undervalued raw card, grading it and selling it for a massive profit. We’ve identified several key indicators when narrowing down our search for raw cards.
First and foremost is condition, obviously we need a card that looks almost PERFECT via pictures because inevitably it is very difficult for pictures to 100% accurately capture the condition of a card. If a card looks to be Gem Mint quality online and it comes back slightly less than that we can still hope for a Mint quality grade and still make a profit.
The second key parameter is a large enough spread between raw and graded to maximize profits but also allow us to incorrectly assess a card and still make a profit. A good rule of thumb we are using is hunting for a card that in a PSA 10 sells for 10x of raw. These are typically undervalued players or older cards whose condition is much harder to maintain over the years.
The third parameter we are utilizing is the projected increase in market value of a particular player. We evaluate these in several different areas but the most notable are; Off-season transitions to better environments that will improve the chance for a) individual success and b) team success. Also previously injured players with a chance to rebound during the season and players currently mid season, whose team has a good chance of making a deep playoff run. Past examples that we’ve utilized are Josh Allen, whose market value was very minimal early in the 2020 season but whose play, and team success (AFC Championship game) led his value to skyrocket. Baker Mayfield, Randy Arozarena and Tom Brady are other notable names.
The players and cards we have currently identified as potentially good raw to graded investments are:
Kevin Durant – 2007-08 Fleer and 2007-087 Topps Rookie Cards – Durant has enjoyed an extremely successful revival with the Brooklyn Nets. Not only is Durant currently posting a 29 ppg, 7.3 rbg and 5.3 apg on better than 50% shooting but he has helped position the Nets as a premier contender in the Eastern Conference. In addition cards from that era of the hobby are notoriously hard to grade because of poor centering across the board, in addition to the predictable decline in condition over a 13 year period. The 2007-08 Fleer Durant Rookie Cards has 2 main cards, his base and his ’86 Retro variations both of which are currently trading at over 10x raw to PSA 10.
Carson Wentz – Wentz is hoping to enjoy a Kevin Durant type return performance in the 2021 NFL Season. Just 2 seasons ago Wentz was the front runner for NFL MVP before injuries derailed his 2019 campaign. Injuries and poor offensive line play completely destroyed his 2020 season before he was inevitably benched for Jalen Hurts. Indianapolis provides a reunion with form Offensive Coordinator Frank Reich, as well as one of the best offensive line and running games in the league. If Wentz can propel an Indianapolis team back to the playoffs, and play at a high level, it bodes well for his market value. The cards we are currently targeting are 2016 Panini Prizm Silver, 2016 Select Silver (and numbered) and 2016 Optic base and Holo Prizm variations. The 2016 Optic Base provided the lowest entry point at an average of $20 per raw card while their PSA 10 variations are currently trading in the $200 range. Likewise Prizm Silver and Select Silver cards under the $50 raw range are providing 8-12x increases in their PSA 10 variations. We expect these numbers to drastically increase if Wentz shows he can return to elite status as a quarterback.
Matthew Stafford – Stafford is another quarterback whose situation in Detroit has limited his demand in the hobby. Stafford is only 33 years old and is the fastest player to 40,000 passing yards in NFL history. He is also the fastest to 3,000 completions and has the most comeback victories in the NFL since his debut in 2009. With his move to the LA Rams, a franchise that won a playoff game last year, it gives him an extraordinary opportunity to cement his legacy as an all-time great quarterback. Given his rookie cards are now 12 years old, the pop reports on his PSA 10s are extremely low. We’ve already made an impact flipping his Chrome Refractor and are now targeting his base ’09 Topps as well as any variations such as the Gold variation /2009. The base Topps version is currently trading at 8x raw to PSA 10 while the Gold is 10x.